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I completed Backroad Butchery with no problem. I currently have six outposts and four vassals. I think it should have started but not sure, so if anybody could confirm this it'd be a great help.
Conquer another settlement. It'll then start the next time you come back to your HQ.
Edit. Sorry, didn't see all of your post.
"Unwelcome Guests" should have started when you claimed your seventh settlement.